With the College Football Playoff behind us and the NFL winding down, more people begin paying attention to college hoops.
We’re less than 50 days away from Selection Sunday, meaning we can start weeding out the contenders from the pretenders. Who’s going to make the Final Four, and who is destined to be picked off earlier in the NCAA Tournament?
While it’s largely up to how the bracket unfolds and which teams are given the most optimal paths, here’s how I see it as of late January. Let’s try to put the madness in March Madness and not just pick the best four teams on paper.
Not under consideration
Jan 25, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Connecticut Huskies forward Alex Karaban (11) drives to the basket against Xavier Musketeers guard Dante Maddox Jr. (21) in the second half at the Cintas Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images UConn: Sorry, this team isn’t three-peat worthy. The Huskies have played almost exclusively close games in conference action, and their defense in particular is lacking.
St. John’s: Rick Pitino will be back in the NCAA Tournament and St. John’s looks really strong against the backdrop of a weak Big East. A dark horse, but not Final Four-caliber quite yet.
Kentucky: Mark Pope’s Wildcat revival has been a great story. You just can’t win every tournament game 100-90.
Just missed the cut
Jan 25, 2025; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks forward Flory Bidunga (40) celebrates with center Hunter Dickinson (1) after scoring against the Houston Cougars during the first half at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images Iowa State: Experienced, well-rounded and highly efficient at both ends of the floor. Don’t be surprised if this is the year the Cyclones break through, but they haven’t won a second-weekend tournament game in the Fred Hoiberg/T.J. Otzelberger era.
Kansas: Great defensively, better offensively than last year when things fell apart on the Jayhawks. But they’re too one-dimensional with the ball and never get to the foul line.
Tennessee, Alabama and Florida: Lumping these three together because any one of them may end up winning the SEC, and any one of them may hit a wall when facing top-15 team after top-15 team in this brutal regular-season schedule. Florida is better defensively than the Tide and better on offense than the Vols, for what it’s worth.
Mississippi State: One more from the SEC, and one more dark horse I like a lot. The Bulldogs have experience, balance and the ability to win away from home.
Marquette: Speaking of experience, not only is this a master class in roster retention, but Shaka Smart has taken a lower seed to the Final Four before. The Golden Eagles’ turnover-heavy defense will make anyone mad.
Illinois: The Illini’s experiment of importing Kasparas Jakucionis and Tomislav Ivisic to carry the team appeared to be working before they recently lost three of four games, allowing 82, 80 and 91 in those defeats.
Purdue: No Zach Edey, no problem? Unlike prior iterations of Purdue, this one is powered by guard play, and Braden Smith is one of the best in the nation.
The Final Four
Jan 22, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Utah Utes forward Keanu Dawes (8) attempts to shoot as Houston Cougars forward J’Wan Roberts (13) and guard L.J. Cryer (4) defends during the second half at Fertitta Center. The Cougars defeated the Utes 70-36. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images Duke: For all the times we’ve written about the ACC’s apparent demise, the conference has gotten a team to the Final Four three years running, including No. 8, 5 and 11 seeds. No need to overthink this year’s participant. Duke is more than Cooper Flagg: It’s one of the best defenses in the nation and very efficient from the 3-point arc, the foul line and in close. My early national title pick.
Houston: Kelvin Sampson got the Cougars to the Final Four in 2021, and the past three campaigns have seemed like disappointments relative to the strength of his teams. For those who didn’t catch the crazy way the Cougars beat Kansas in double overtime on Saturday, this year’s group has the mental fortitude to handle any situation.
Auburn: The Tigers’ only loss of the season was by six points to Duke, at Duke. They’ve won blowouts and pulled out close games, high-scoring battles, and defensive struggles like Saturday’s slugfest against Tennessee. They’ve won when their best player, Johni Broome, was sidelined by injury. They just win. I see almost no weaknesses holding them back in March.
Michigan State: Assuming the other three teams are No. 1 seeds, here’s where I’ll avoid further chalk. There’s speculation this may be 69-year-old Tom Izzo’s last stand, and love him or hate him, the man coaches out of his mind in the tournament. I love the Spartans’ statistical profile, depth, experience and 4-0 record in true road games. They’ll end up a No. 3 or 4 seed in the tourney and go on one last ride with Izzo as they seek their second national championship.
Championship game: Duke 84, Houston 72
