Posted on: October 28, 2024, 09:54h.
Last updated on: October 28, 2024, 10:02h.
Speculation is growing about the identity and intentions of a mysterious French “whale” who has wagered US$45 million on Donald Trump to win the election on offshore prediction platform Polymarket.
The trader has placed hundreds of bets via four identified accounts, “Fredi9999,” “Theo4,” “Princess Caro,” and “Michie” with sums ranging from $5 to tens of thousands. Fredi9999 is responsible for most of the action, taking a $13.8 million position on Trump and against Harris.
The bets account for 1% of the $2.4 billion wagered on Polymarket’s presidential election winner market.’
‘Not a Manipulation Attempt’
In a statement, Polymarket described the trader as someone who had “extensive trading experience and a financial services background.” The platform added that it believed the bettor was “taking a directional position based on personal views of the election,” rather than as an attempt to manipulate the market.
The multiple transactions were likely designed to prevent the price on Trump from shooting up too quickly so the trader will maximize their winnings if their position proves to be correct, suggesting a financial motive.
In the leadup to the 2012 election, an unknown trader bet millions on Romney on the now-defunct trading exchange Intrade. This amounted to more than one-third of all bets placed on Romney to win, and about one-fifth of all bets placed on Obama to lose.
A 2015 academic paper examining the incident noted that “by placing large bids for Romney and large offers for Obama that effectively created a firewall, preventing prices from moving in response to incoming information.”
The paper’s authors concluded that it was an attempt to “manipulate beliefs about [Romney’s] odds of victory in an attempt to boost fundraising, campaign morale, and turnout.”
This incident prompted the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to warn that election “manipulation has happened and is likely to recur” in court filings last month.
The CFTC ultimately failed in its legal challenge to prevent prediction platform Kalshi from offering events contracts on the US election.
More Bettors Back Trump
Last week Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour rejected claims that a handful of whales were skewing the odds in favor of Trump after the former Republican president pulled into a commanding lead on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
On the contrary, said Mansour, the “median bet size on Harris is larger ($85) than the median bet size on Donald Trump ($58).” Simply put, more people were betting on Trump but at lower stakes, which doesn’t exactly bode well for Harris.
Trump was 62% to win on Kalshi on Monday and 66% on Polymarket.
