How the NFL starting QBs were rated as high school prospects

The NFL season gets underway tonight so there’s no better time to remember every expected quarterback starter across the league and how they fared as high school QBs. Nearly half (15 of 32) of this year’s NFL Week 1 starting quarterbacks attended Rivals Camp Series events as high school prospect.

The Allen, Texas, four-star quarterback had a respectable ranking at No. 71 nationally and fifth at dual-threat. But we were conservative in ranking Murray because of his small stature, especially in an era before undersized QBs became the norm in college and the NFL.

Cousins went through the recruiting process before the Rivals Camp Series and so in-person evaluations were limited for the low three-star. Plus, he only had UConn, Western Michigan and Toledo before then-coach Mark Dantonio offered late at Michigan State.

Looking back on his phenomenal career at Louisville and now in the NFL, it’s hard to believe we ranked Jackson as the No. 17 dual-threat QB in the 2015 class. But even after a decent showing at the Rivals Camp Series in Miami, he was far from a finished product, didn’t have a smooth release and sitting in the pocket was not his strong suit.

After unsuccessfully trying to get a scholarship at Fresno State and turning down a walk-on spot at San Diego State, Allen went to junior college and then transferred to Wyoming.

He never attended a Rivals Camp Series and probably wasn’t invited since he had no offers – but always had a big arm and an athletic build. He put it all together in Laramie.

The Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei five-star quarterback was ranked second in the 2020 Rivals250 behind only Bryan Bresee and there was clearly an argument that Young could have been No. 1 overall in the class. Young was awesome in high school, unstoppable and always seemed to be a second ahead of the game.

Williams was the top-ranked dual-threat quarterback and No. 6 nationally, but that was too low considering Quinn Ewers was No. 1 in the 2021 Rivals250. The Washington (D.C.) Gonzaga standout was excellent in high school but really took off under Lincoln Riley first at Oklahoma and then at USC. We fell in love with Ewers’ arm talent and size, and discounted Williams’ freakish playmaking ability too much.

A mid-three-star who didn’t throw the smoothest passes or really put all the zip that others did or have the physical tools at that stage, Burrow went to Ohio State but couldn’t win the winning job and then starred at the highest level at LSU. Urban Meyer once told Burrow he “throws like a girl” which certainly didn’t end up being true.

The Gainesville, Ga., product looked out of central casting for a five-star ranking. He attended numerous Rivals events among other stops, always looked super smooth and composed, and just threw a beautiful football each time.

Clemson landed an early commitment over Florida and while Auburn got him on a secret trip, those Tigers couldn’t flip him from the other Tigers.

A mid-three-star prospect out of Haughton, La., Prescott was not a big name on the camp or 7-on-7 circuit and really didn’t get much recruiting attention at all until he went to a Mississippi State summer camp and then committed.

LSU tried to get involved but Prescott pretty much slid under the recruiting radar.

What we loved about Nix – and why he was a five-star prospect – was what people fell in love with at Oregon and now the NFL. He’s a gym rat, a coach’s son, someone who is constantly looking to improve. He loves the game and has a real passion for it.

His career was going nowhere at Auburn before transferring to Oregon and becoming a first-round pick.

Goff never made it to a Rivals Camp Series event but did work out at other venues including the Elite 11. During those years, the structure was different and he only threw a few balls each night. It was so limited, and I remember Goff coming over to us on the sidelines and airing his grievances about not throwing the ball enough.

Lightly recruited out of Kentfield (Calif.) Marin Catholic, Goff picked Cal but he ended up being ranked wrongly as he’s been clearly more productive than the seven QBs ranked ahead of him.

Love was a two-star miss out of Bakersfield (Calif.) Liberty but seeing him in high school no one could have predicted he’d be a star quarterback in the NFL. He was long and wiry without much there physically. He was only starting to put it together as a quarterback as he had no Power Five offers.

In a California battle between Bryce Young and D.J. Uiagalelei for five-star status, Stroud slid under the radar and didn’t really emerge as a national recruit until late in his junior year. In a few camp settings and in games, Stroud was fluid, smooth and had a dynamic arm but Young was really the favored one at that time.

Ohio State didn’t offer until late and he still picked the Buckeyes over Georgia, Michigan, Oregon and USC.

The book on Richardson throughout his high school career was that he was a phenomenal athlete but there were questions about his accuracy throwing the route tree especially the deep ball. That has improved tremendously over the years and now he’s one of the best, young quarterbacks in the league especially because he has that added value of running the ball.

Lawrence was the epitome of a No. 1 player who showed up to every event to compete, looked excellent every time we saw him and then backed it up with a great college career followed by being the No. 1 pick.

I always wondered about those rumors that he was a silent commit to Georgia only to flip to Clemson but it all worked out for him in the end.

If anyone saw Mahomes at the Rivals Camp Series in Dallas in 2013, this wasn’t someone who looked destined for NFL greatness and one of the best quarterbacks in league history. He just wasn’t there yet as he had decent size but he was lean and didn’t have the smooth, trained delivery of other superstars.

He only went to Texas Tech after another QB decommitted and then steadily his career took off into what he is today. Total credit goes to him for that level of development but it wasn’t there heading into his senior season.

Herbert was more like a hermit in high school. The mid-three-star from Eugene (Ore.) Sheldon was injured through his junior year which limited his regional or national exposure. Then he just didn’t do many events, if any at all, earlier in his career.

He had FCS offers but little attention from the big boys, until Oregon got involved late and that was his dream school.

Stafford’s ranking was a total hit. The five-star quarterback was No. 6 nationally, the top-rated quarterback in a class led by Percy Harvin and in every way both sides have backed that up in the last nearly 20 years.

Minshew attended multiple Rivals Camp Series events but I’d be lying if I said he made a lasting impression. The three-star had one of the craziest college experiences as well, first going to Troy but leaving before playing a game, then transferring to Northwest Mississippi CC before going to East Carolina and then Washington State where Mike Leach resurrected his career in 2018.

The Honolulu (Hawaii) St. Louis four-star threw a beautiful ball and always had tremendous accuracy but he wasn’t impressive physically and we had/still have an aversion to lefties since not many play at the NFL level.

We were definitely wrong especially as he was a high four-star but Kellen Mond and Tate Martell (who was so dynamic in high school) were ranked ahead of him.

By our rankings measures – expected college performance and NFL Draft projection – Darnold should have been a five-star since he was the third overall pick in 2018. The San Clemente, Calif., standout finished No. 179 in the Rivals250 and eighth at dual-threat, which was far too low, but he almost did no high school events and some schools were recruiting him as a tight end.

Brissett was listed as a dual-threat quarterback and he could move around decently well but at 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds in high school he was more of a pocket passer who could also throw on the run.

Florida was out of the running for him after then-coach Urban Meyer offered him a grayshirt but when Meyer stepped down the Gators beat out Miami and Wisconsin.

A mid-three-star out of Bakersfield (Calif.) Christian, Carr came through the ranks before the Rivals Camp Series and didn’t attend many events so his ranking was conservatively based on film. Fresno State won out over Utah and SMU.

In the 2015 class from Charlotte (N.C.) Latin, Jones went unranked because he was supposed to go to Princeton before deciding to walk-on at Duke.

It’s unclear if he was ever invited to a Rivals Camp Series event but probably wasn’t since he had no Power Five offers throughout his recruitment.

Rodgers predated the Rivals Camp Series, and to be honest he garnered such little attention in high school that a camp invite would’ve probably been unlikely. He considered ending his football career but decided to attend Oroville (Calif.) Butte C.C., where he shined and then transferred to Cal and his career completely took off. He had no offers coming out of high school.

A four-star but in hindsight too low at No. 231 nationally because Hurts was not a finished product coming out of Channelview, Texas. He picked Alabama over Texas A&M, Florida, Mississippi State and others.

Hurts was clearly under-ranked though as he’s been by far the most successful dual-threat QB in that 2016 class.

The Richmond (Va.) Collegiate quarterback was a two-star despite putting up big numbers but his recruitment never took off as he picked NC State over Duke, his only other offer. There was also a lot of baseball talk in his future and so that could have impacted his ranking as well.

In hindsight, Purdy was drastically under-ranked as a low three-star but we also didn’t want to get manipulated by gaudy statistics at Gilbert (Ariz.) Perry and bump him up because of it.

Iowa State started a relationship with him and while Texas A&M tried to come in late, Purdy stuck with the Cyclones.

A four-star quarterback in the 2009 class, Smith was at Miramar, Fla., before the Rivals Camp Series started. He was tall and lanky in high school but could really zing it all over the field as West Virginia held off LSU, South Florida and others in his recruitment.

The Austin (Texas) Lake Travis three-star turned down some low-level offers to walk on and play at Texas Tech before transferring to Oklahoma.

He never attended a Rivals event but his senior film showed some of what we’ve seen over the years – RPOs before it was really that popular, some gun-slinger mentality and a high competitive drive, although his throwing motion was really funky and not the same each time.

In a loaded quarterback class led by Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields, the Madison, Conn., three-star got a little lost in the shuffle. He landed offers at every camp he attended heading into his senior season and picked Penn State. When he was the backup to Sean Clifford, Levis transferred to Kentucky and became an early second-round pick.

A regular on the Rivals Camp Series circuit from his early days, Daniels always had incredible pop on his passes and he was a phenomenal athlete but the San Bernardino (Calif.) Cajon standout was always very lean.

Only five-star Spencer Rattler was ranked higher than him in the dual-threat quarterback rankings.