Macau is gearing up for a major influx of visitors as the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday kicks off on January 29. With new economic stimulus measures and expanded visa policies, the gaming hub is poised for a strong start to 2025, with some analysts predicting higher-than-expected gaming revenue for the year.
Chinese New Year Brings Record Tourism
The week-long national holiday could set new records for visitor numbers, with 70% of arrivals expected from mainland China. As of last week, over 21 luxury hotels were already fully booked for the early CNY period, according to Seeking Alpha.
Travel demand is surging, with projections suggesting 510 million arrivals by rail and 90 million by air throughout China. The Macao Government Tourism Office estimates that up to 185,000 visitors per day will enter the region during the holiday, further reinforcing Macau’s reputation as a top destination for Chinese travelers.
Visa Relaxation and Economic Stimulus Boost Macau’s Outlook
A key factor driving Macau’s tourism boom is the expansion of Individual Visa Schemes (IVS) by China’s central government. Since January 1, residents of Zhuhai and Hengqin have been able to apply for multiple-entry visas to Macau, potentially increasing daily visits by 20,000.
At the same time, Beijing has introduced economic recovery policies, including interest rate cuts and financial incentives to spur consumer confidence. Chinese President Xi Jinping remains optimistic about Macau’s growth prospects, despite broader economic challenges.
Mixed Analyst Predictions for 2025 Gaming Revenue
While Macau’s short-term tourism outlook appears strong, analysts are divided on full-year gaming revenue projections.
- S&P Global warns that economic uncertainty could limit Macau’s cash flow recovery.
- Macquarie believes the 6% GGR growth forecast is too conservative and points to international roadshows aimed at attracting more foreign visitors.
- Seaport Research’s Vitaly Umansky estimates a 7% GGR increase, contingent on economic improvement.
- CreditSights’ Nicholas Chen predicts a 4.7% rise, citing cautious consumer spending.
- JP Morgan analysts forecast a 5% GGR increase for 2025, with 4% growth in the first half and 7% in the second half.
- The Macau government projects MOP240 billion in total gaming revenue, reflecting an 11% increase over 2024.
Macau’s Long-Term Strategy for Economic Diversification
Beyond gaming, Macau’s Chief Executive Sam Hou-fai outlined plans to enhance governance, support economic diversification, and strengthen integration with Hengqin. The Guangdong-Macao In-depth Cooperation Zone is expected to see new investment incentives, regulatory alignment, and infrastructure development to foster long-term growth.
Additionally, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Macau will introduce measures to facilitate international business, attract foreign investment, and expand global partnerships. These initiatives align with Beijing’s broader strategy of positioning Macau as a more diversified economic hub.
With Chinese New Year expected to set the tone for a strong 2025, Macau’s casino industry is poised for steady growth, though economic challenges remain. The coming months will determine whether tourism momentum and government policies can drive sustained recovery in the region’s gaming and hospitality sectors.
Source:
Macau Gears Up for Strong CNY, Longer-Term Growth, igamingbusiness.com, January 28, 2025.
