The horse racing broadcaster picks out his fancies from Saturday’s racing and debuts a new feature looking ahead to the Cheltenham Festival.
Whisper it quietly, but is the Irish and particularly Willie Mullins’ iron grip on jump racing’s big prizes just showing signs of being loosened?
After the disasters of last season, the Seven Barrows yard of Nicky Henderson has come roaring back with Constitution Hill, Sir Gino and last week Jonbon all winning their skirmishes with Mullins horses in the last month.
There are bigger guns waiting in the wings and still areas of complete Irish domination, mainly in the staying division – chase and hurdle – and in the Mares’ races, but the balance of power has appeared to shift markedly in the 2m Championship races via Jonbon (Queen Mother Champion Chase) and the successful return of Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle). Add in some of the novice races and Sir Gino (Arkle), Lulamba (Triumph) and The New Lion (Turners) are all current ante post favourites for the home team.
Storm Eowyn has rather got in the way of any Anglo-Irish rehearsals on Cheltenham Trials day, where the headline act is Constitution Hill, who has a simple task in the Unibet Hurdle. Sometimes racing has nothing to do with betting and this just provides a welcome opportunity to witness a top-class horse in action as he builds towards his challenge to reclaim the Champion Hurdle.
The Gold Cup division is definitely dominated by the Irish, and Gentlemansgame – third in the Savills to Galopin Des Champs – gives a line to the top-level Irish Form in the Cotswold Chase. L’Homme Presse clearly deserves to be favourite but has had his issues down the years and the yard aren’t quite firing as they were a month ago. Hopefully he can win and provide the home team with the credible Gold Cup contender they are lacking, but there are a lot of holes in the opposition and DELTA WORK (14:25 Cheltenham), while approaching the veteran stage now looks to have been written off too early by the market. There is a fair amount of rain forecast between now and the off, and if it turns into a slog he may prove more durable than several of his opponents, even at his age. With the Festival Cross Country now being a handicap, that is less likely to be the be all and end all of Delta Work’s season and he could well outrun his odds.
The paucity of UK staying hurdlers is once again highlighted in the Cleeve Hurdle, where CRAMBO (15:35 Cheltenham) will be looking to do what he failed to do last season and build on his Ascot Long Walk victory. He is the horse who has the most potential to step forward and dominate the domestic division, though he will have to win this comprehensively to have connections of Teahupoo and Home By The Lee losing too much sleep.
ITV’s coverage also features four races from Doncaster, where NELLS SON’s (13:30 Doncaster) defeat of Matata at Kelso got a significant boost over Winter Millions weekend, and he can carry top weight to victory in the 2m handicap chase for regular rider Danny McMenamin. Trainer Nicky Richards is still recuperating from a nasty fall on the gallops last month and hopefully the progressive Nells Son can help speed his recovery.
David Power Jockey Cup leader Harry Skelton heads to Doncaster rather than Cheltenham. The Skeltons are planning their forays with military precision to maximise points for Harry in the ITV races, as he looks to bag the £500k first prize and prize money for Dan’s pursuit of a first trainer’s title. KATIERA (14:40 Doncaster) looks the pick of his rides and he can afford to ride her confidently off the likely strong pace and let her class tell.
CHELTENHAM CORNER
With entries now coming out for the Festival, each week I will just include a few thoughts on the Cheltenham betting markets and how they may be impacted by the weekend performances.
The main interest may actually come in the 13:1, with East India Dock (Triumph Hurdle) in the Trial. He has been impressive in his two hurdling wins to date, including at the track in November. The opposition is deeper and the form lines from France harder to interpret, but the ante post market has changed significantly in the last two weeks after the emergence of Lulamba (also entered in the Supreme) and seen James Owen’s charge a little out in the cold.
There is likely to be a sorting-out of the Irish juvenile pecking order at the Dublin Racing Festival next weekend, but if you do expect East India Dock to win this weekend at odds-on then consider a portion of that stake going on antepost pre-race for the Triumph, which could prove a better investment.
As mentioned above, it will be D-Day for the likes of Crambo (Stayers) and L’Homme Presse (Gold Cup), while in Ireland it is largely the calm before the DRF storm.
The opening Timeform Novices Handicap Chase has also got a good record in terms of Festival form, with three of the last six winners going on to win at the Festival and another two finishing second. Since the removal of the middle-distance Novice this season, this is more likely to be in handicap company this time around so make a note to check out the winner’s options once the Handicap entries come out in the next few weeks. Massacio going up in trip in the Ultima rather than the Novice would be interesting.
