Posted on: January 13, 2025, 12:16h.
Last updated on: January 13, 2025, 02:03h.
Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of President-elect Donald Trump, is joining Kalshi in an advisory role.
Kalshi is a peer-to-peer wagering exchange that allows users to bet on everything from elections to tomorrow’s weather. The online platform is regulated by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Kalshi, overseas sportsbooks, and offshore betting websites that took action on the 2024 presidential outcome had Trump favored in the leadup to Election Day. While pollsters said the race was neck-and-neck, Kalshi bettors gave the former casino owner a nearly 60% likelihood of winning.
Trump Jr. says Kalshi’s ability to better forecast event and election outcomes is one reason he accepted the position to help guide the startup through the years ahead.
On Election night at Mar-a-Lago, while biased outlets called the race a coin toss, my family and close friends used the prediction market Kalshi to know we won hours ahead of the fake news media,” Trump Jr. said. “I immediately knew I had to contribute to their mission. Today, I am proud to announce that I am joining Kalshi as a strategic adviser.”
Kalshi was founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. The two met while working as financial analysts. After securing a license from the CFTC in November 2020 to operate derivative contract markets, the Kalshi platform went live in July 2021. “Kalshi” means “everything” in Arabic.
Regulatory Matters
Though Kalshi obtained an operating license from the CFTC to run contracts regarding various everyday outcomes like whether the price of Bitcoin will hit $150K before 2026 (39% chance as of today), the independent federal agency has long fought against allowing election bets. The CFTC under President Joe Biden’s administration said Kalshi and its offshore rival, Polymarket, had turned into “online casinos” that violated federal and state laws on gambling.
In October 2022, the CFTC ordered Kalshi to withdraw its markets involving politics.
Kalshi sued the federal agency that regulates derivatives ahead of the 2024 election. The online wagering exchange won a major victory a little more than a month ahead of the Trump vs. VP Kamala Harris showdown when a federal judge ruled that the CFTC overstepped its authority in mandating that Kalshi suspend its election contracts. The CFTC is appealing the ruling.
With CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam on his way out and a Trump administration coming in pledging deregulation, the odds are presumably improving that Kalshi’s election markets are here to stay. Adding Trump Jr. to its corporate roster only further strengthens the outfit’s positioning to deal with federal regulators and lawmakers.
Offshore Opponent
Kalshi bringing on Trump Jr. could also hint that a Trump-led CFTC might continue its probe into whether Polymarket has violated its 2022 settlement with the federal agency.
It was January 2022 when the CFTC fined the New York-based cryptocurrency wagering exchange $1.4 million for operating event options without permission from the regulator. Polymarket agreed to stop allowing US-based users in part of the resolution.
Polymarket has its own Washington, DC, insider in adviser Christopher Giancarlo. Dubbed the “Crypto Dad” by his online following for overseeing the first Bitcoin futures products, Giancarlo served as the chair of the CFTC from August 2017 until July 2019 during the first Trump administration.
