Flutter Entertainment, a global leader in sports betting and iGaming, has revised its US earnings expectations for 2024. The company attributes this adjustment to unprecedented outcomes in the NFL season, where favorite teams consistently triumphed, benefiting bettors but adversely impacting Flutter’s revenue.
The ongoing 2024/2025 NFL season has been marked by the highest success rate for favorites in nearly two decades. Since the repeal of the US sports betting ban in 2018, such favorable outcomes for customers have not been observed at this scale. As a result, Flutter’s FanDuel brand, a dominant player in the US market, has faced significant financial setbacks.
Financial Impacts of Favorable NFL Outcomes
Between November 12 and December 31, 2024, Flutter estimates that adverse gaming revenue impacts amounted to $438 million, according to a company press release. This led to revenue reductions of approximately $390 million and a $260 million decline in adjusted EBITDA during the same period. Consequently, the company now projects US revenue to reach $5.78 billion for 2024, a $370 million decrease from the midpoint of its previous forecast of $6.05 billion to $6.25 billion.
Flutter also adjusted its US adjusted EBITDA projection for 2024 to $505 million, down $205 million from earlier guidance. For Q4 specifically, the company forecasts US revenue of $1.59 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $161 million, reflecting a combined unfavorable impact of $550 million in revenue and $360 million in adjusted EBITDA.
FanDuel’s strong performance in parlay offerings contributed to a structural revenue margin of 14.5% for Q4, a 100-basis-point increase year-over-year. However, unfavorable NFL outcomes reduced net sportsbook revenue margins by 390 basis points, offsetting these gains. Promotional spending, meanwhile, was contained to 4.0%, down 20 basis points year-over-year.
Global Resilience Amid US Setbacks
Outside the US, Flutter experienced more favorable sports results, particularly in the English Premier League, according to Reuters via Yahoo Finance. This momentum has led the company to anticipate revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth of approximately 1% and 2%, respectively, above prior estimates for its non-US brands such as Paddy Power, Betfair, and Sportsbet. The projected adjusted EBITDA midpoint for these brands remains at $1.82 billion.
Despite the challenges in the US sports betting market, Flutter emphasized that these setbacks are temporary and do not affect its long-term strategic goals. The company reiterated its confidence in the ambitious growth trajectory outlined during its September Investor Day, which includes plans to double profits by 2027.
Outlook for 2025 and Beyond
Flutter plans to release a more comprehensive update on its Q4 earnings and 2025 guidance during its scheduled March 2025 earnings call. The company remains optimistic about its ability to navigate short-term fluctuations while capitalizing on the growing US sports betting market, a key driver of its long-term profitability.
By leveraging its global expertise and robust brand portfolio, Flutter aims to maintain its leadership in the betting industry, demonstrating resilience and adaptability amid market volatility.
