Posted on: October 3, 2024, 10:29h.
Last updated on: October 3, 2024, 10:29h.
The 2024 United States presidential vote is shaping up to further the debate on whether polling or betting markets are a more accurate predictor of election outcomes.
As of this morning, Oct. 3, just 32 days until the Nov. 5 presidential contest, former President Donald Trump has regained the betting front-runner status on political wagering exchanges and sportsbooks in the United Kingdom and throughout Europe. Vice President Kamala Harris had been the betting front-runner since being deemed the victor of her Sept. 10 debate with Trump.
Possibly because of a strong performance on Tuesday night from U.S. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) in his discussion with Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), Trump this week regained his front-runner status on the betting markets. Polymarket bettors have wagered almost $1.2 billion on the Nov. 5 outcome, with slightly more money remaining in play on a Trump victory.
Polymarket’s betting movement suggests Trump has a 50% chance of winning the 2024 election. Harris’ odds are only slightly lower at 49%.
Polymarket reports that the outstanding shares on Trump winning total $231,874,504 to $226,459,888 on a Harris victory.
Odds and Polls Differ
Polymarket isn’t the only peer-to-peer wagering exchange that facilitates election markets. Betfair, a similar platform, has also seen its 2024 market tilt in Trump’s favor.
The former casino magnate’s odds are at -105 for an implied likelihood of 51.2%. Harris is the slightest of underdogs at even money for an implied chance of 50%.
Overseas bookmakers in the United Kingdom and throughout Europe have similarly adjusted their lines in Trump’s favor. Betting behemoth William Hill has the 78-year-old’s odds at 10/11 for an implied chance of 52.4%. Harris is at even money.
While bettors think Trump is the narrowest of favorites, pollsters see things much differently at this juncture. According to the latest polling composite, Harris has a 2.8-point lead over Trump.
Recent polling shows Harris with slight leads in key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump leads slightly in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Odds Have Strong Track Record
According to The Conversation, a nonprofit media outlet that combines journalism and academic research, political betting records in the U.S. can be traced back to 1868. Since then, only two times have underdogs prevailed.
The first came in 1948 when Harry Truman famously defeated Republican challenger Thomas Dewey, the Republican governor of New York. Truman’s victory was considered the greatest upset in presidential election history… until 2016.
Eight years ago, Hillary Clinton was heavily favored to become the first female president. Her odds ahead of the election were 7/2, or an implied chance of almost 80%.
Trump, however, managed to prove the “wisdom of the crowd” wrong. Despite losing the popular vote by almost three million votes, Trump was victorious by winning the Electoral College by 77 votes.
The crowd this election cycle certainly isn’t as convinced that either candidate is a strong front-runner, but that could change as the campaigns come down the final stretch.
