Tom Hill offers his tips for the second leg of this Champions League semi-final tie at the Parc des Princes.
Borussia Dortmund will take a 1-0 lead to Paris Saint-Germain for the second leg of their Champions League semi-final, and the Germans will be hoping that they can force their way into the Wembley final.
PSG are searching for an elusive first Champions League trophy, and the Parisians are 3/1 to go on to claim their first crown in Europe’s premier competition.
Luis Enrique’s men are 19/40 to win at the Parc des Princes and 8/13 to qualify from the tie, but those prices look to underestimate Dortmund’s chances.
Best bets
Dortmund to qualify @ 6/5
Over 5.5 cards @ 5/4
Dortmund can pass Paris test
Dortmund head to the Parc des Princes with a 1-0 lead after Niclas Fullkrug’s goal in front of the Yellow Wall, and while winning in Paris will be no easy task, it may not prove as tricky as the prices suggest.
PSG are a club with a huge reputation, and they have the star quality with Kylian Mbappe in their ranks. The Parisians also benefit from having a clear week to prepare for the second leg of this Champions League semi-final tie, but there are also some clear weaknesses to Enrique’s side.
PSG have cruised to the Ligue 1 title, but they have faced little competition, and when they have stepped up in class, things have proven far more difficult for the Red and Blues.
Enrique saw his men hammered 4-1 at Newcastle in the group stage. They were also beaten by Milan and failed to beat Dortmund in the first phase of the competition.
It’s worth remembering that Barcelona beat PSG 3-2 in Paris and Barca were in control of the Champions League quarter-final tie when taking a 1-0 lead at the Camp Nou. Ronald Araujo’s red card swung the game in favour of the Parisians and they came through that contest, but that clearly came with a major slice of fortune.
Dortmund were deserved winners of the first leg in Germany, Die Borussen kept their cool to down a good Atletico Madrid side at the last-eight stage of this competition and offers of 6/5 about Edin Terzic qualifying from their tie look generous.
Frustration could lead to cards
PSG have been shown 29 cautions in this season’s Champions League and it doesn’t take much for the Parisian blood to rise.
If Dortmund are able to frustrate Enrique’s men and keep them at bay, we have seen time and time again that PSG lose their discipline when faced with defeat.
The Red and Blues were shown four yellow cards when beaten at Real Madrid two seasons ago, four yellows and one red against Man City prior to that and getting long on cards looks like a play.
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