Posted on: March 6, 2024, 07:42h.
Last updated on: March 6, 2024, 07:42h.
The 2024 odds for the Nov. 5 presidential election shortened last night in favor of a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Trump, the perennial favorite to win the GOP presidential ticket for a third consecutive election cycle, yesterday won 14 of the 15 Super Tuesday contests on the Republican side. Trump’s lone defeat came in Vermont where Nikki Haley was the victor, but the Green Mountain State has an open primary where many Democrats are presumed to have voted against Trump by selecting the former UN ambassador.
Biden, like Trump, was nearly perfect on Super Tuesday on the Democratic side, with his lone defeat coming in American Samoa where less than 100 people in the US territory voted for local businessman Jason Palmer. US territories vote during primaries but not general elections because they are not entitled to electoral votes under the US Constitution.
American Samoa will certainly not inhibit Biden’s path to the 2024 ballot. And with Haley expected to announce a suspension to her campaign this morning, the November ballot is nearly set with Trump vs. Biden.
2024 Odds
Following Super Tuesday’s outcome, political bettors on wagering exchanges have further shortened Biden and Trump’s odds of winning their party nominations.
On Smarkets, Biden’s implied odds of representing the Democrats are at 81%. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is a distant second at 6.5%, Vice President Kamala Harris is third at 5%, and former First Lady Michelle Obama is fourth at 4%. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren rounds out the top five at 1%.
Trump is an even bigger favorite for the GOP ticket. The billionaire and former casino magnate, who continues to contend he was wrongly forced out of the White House on a stolen election, has implied odds of 97% of being the Republicans’ presidential pick. Haley is now at just 1% along with former candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
As for the general election outcome, Smarkets bettors have Trump as the front-runner with an implied chance of 48%. Biden is a distant second at 33%.
GOP Division
With Haley’s exit, and this week’s Supreme Court ruling saying the billionaire will be on the ballot in states that sought to keep him off, Trump’s path to the 2024 GOP ticket is paved. With Biden set to become the Democrats’ presumptive nominee, political operatives are ramping up the candidates’ general election campaigns.
A recent poll from Bloomberg News/Morning Consult has Biden trailing Trump in several key swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
But whether a divided Republican Party will unify and rally around Trump is the big unknown. Though her lone primary victory came in Vermont, Haley fielded almost 40% of the GOP primary vote in Massachusetts, 35% in critical Virginia, and 30% in Nevada. Unless Trump can bring those Haley supporters to his side in November, he’ll face a tall task in beating Biden.
There remains speculation that Biden could transfer his primary delegates to a hand-picked successor during the Democratic Convention, with Newsom and Obama the leading favorites. With many voters questioning his mental fitness at 81 years old (he turns 82 on Nov. 20 and would be 86 by the time his second term would culminate), his performance during Thursday night’s State of the Union could dictate whether the incumbent ultimately runs for another four years as commander in chief.
