Posted on: February 1, 2024, 03:51h.
Last updated on: February 1, 2024, 04:01h.
There are 10 days left until Super Bowl LVIII kicks off, so changes are possible, but as things stood earlier today, the Kansas City Chiefs are commanding the significant majority of the traditional wagers in the states in which BetMGM is operational.
BetMGM said that it’s taken in 5x as much money on the Chiefs on the moneyline than it has on the San Francisco 49ers, and that the majority of the spread bets it’s booked in the jurisdictions in which it operates are on the Chiefs to cover +2.
The sportsbook operator opened the 49ers at -2 and that’s where the spread remains as of Thursday. BetMGM clients have driven 73% of the bets and 74% of the handle to the Chiefs at that number. The operator opened its Super Bowl moneyline at San Francisco -135 (bet $135 to win $100) and Kansas City +115 (bet $100 to win $115). Those odds have since shifted to -130 and +110, respectively.
Eighty-four percent of the moneyline wagers and 77% of that bet’s handle at BetMGM are on the Chiefs, according to the operator.
Regional Bias for Chiefs Apparent
In North America, BetMGM offers mobile sports betting in 19 states as well as Ontario, Canada, and Puerto Rico.
The three-time Super Bowl champion Chiefs play in Kansas City, Mo., but Missouri doesn’t permit sports betting. Neighboring Kansas does and in that Chiefs-enthused state, the AFC champions are commanding 93% of the bets and 95% of the handle at BetMGM.
Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, and Tennessee are the other states sharing borders with Missouri that also offer mobile sports betting, but BetMGM, which is operational in those states, didn’t release data on how heavily bettors in those jurisdictions are tilting toward the Chiefs.
If there is any state-level bias for the 49ers, it might come by way of Oregon where BetMGM doesn’t offer mobile wagering. BetMGM is a 50/50 joint venture between MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) and UK-based Entain Plc (OTC: GMVHF).
Over/Under Look, Spread Trends
The over/under on the big game was opened at 47 by BetMGM and it’s now at 47.5. As is par for the course with nearly every game, bettors are heavily favoring the over. As of Thursday, 69% of the bets and 70% of the handle were on the over, according to BetMGM. This year’s edition of the big game is at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, which is a domed venue, meaning weather won’t affect the game.
Bettors who like to evaluate historical trends may want to consider that in 57 prior Super Bowls, the favored team went 29-25-2 against the spread. That statistic excludes a game that was a “pick ‘em.” Favorites are also 37-20 on the moneyline.
An interesting, somewhat recent trend, is that in the last 22 Super Bowls, underdogs like the Chiefs are this year, are 15-7 against the spread, according to Forbes Betting.
